A successful military intervention would be very hard to achieve in Côte d’Ivoire

Contrary to their intervention in Sierra Leone or Liberia, ECOMOG forces would have to face a structured and well equiped national army if the military option came to be chosen by ECOWAS.

ECOWAS is rumored to be mobilizing from 2000 to 3000 troops. However, according to Dr. Kwesi Aning, Head of the Conflict Prevention Management and Resolution Department of the Kofi Annan International Peacekeeping Training Centre in Accra, up to 7000 troops would be needed in order to conduct the operation properly.
[…]
They would need to act quickly, otherwise Gbagbo will strenghten his defense, according to Tajudeen Akanji, from the Ibadan University in Nigeria. The offense should take between two and four weeks to be completed.”

AFP, 31/12/2010

Are ECOWAS countries willing (and able) to commit so many troops? Ghana has already announced they would not send any to Côte d’Ivoire. Would other ECOWAS leaders be ready to take the risk knowing that they need to maintain their own internal popularity in the wake of approaching elections ?

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One thought on “A successful military intervention would be very hard to achieve in Côte d’Ivoire

  1. Monkeydubious says:

    All these military “experts” all of a sudden appear from no-where. They speak no of the situation on the ground, not of weakness of the Ivorian defense forces, nothing about Gbagbo’s bluff strategy. There are several experienced 4 star Generals we know of with strong knowledge of the situation in Cote d’Ivoire smiling away. Why are they not speaking? I think those military “experts” have political motivations perhaps for being sidelined ages ago for uselessness. Don’t forget, the UN here is also full of military experts who say nothing!

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